Peru's Ministry of Justice rejected Pedro Castillo's formal pardon request in late July 2026, with the Presidential Pardons Commission ruling it inadmissible on ordinary and humanitarian grounds. Under President Keiko Fujimori's administration, the Justice Minister called any clemency "impossible" given the legal resolution of Castillo's 11.5-year sentence for rebellion and conspiracy tied to his December 2022 attempt to dissolve Congress. Officials have dismissed related protests as attempts at blackmail, and no legislative or executive actions are scheduled that would alter the framework before the December 31, 2026, resolution deadline. A July 2026 UN Working Group opinion found the detention arbitrary but has not prompted shifts in Peruvian policy. Trader consensus at 85.5% for "No" reflects these confirmed barriers and the absence of near-term catalysts for reversal.